Short answer: enough to buy a meaningful number of clicks in your market, and not a dollar more than the math supports. There is no magic industry number, and anyone quoting one without knowing your market is guessing. What you can do is work the math backward from the jobs you want. Here's the framework we use with HVAC clients.
Start from the job, not the budget
Most owners ask "what should I spend?" The better question is "what is a booked job worth to me?" Budget falls out of three numbers you either know or can estimate honestly:
- Average job value. A service call, a repair, and a full system replacement are wildly different. Pick the job type you want more of and use its average ticket.
- Close rate. Of the people who call, how many become paying jobs? Most established shops land somewhere around half, but use your own number, even a rough one.
- Cost per lead you can stomach. If a replacement nets you $2,000 in margin and you close half your calls, a lead is worth up to $1,000 before you break even. You will not pay anywhere near that. The point is knowing your ceiling.
Once you know what a lead is worth, ad spend stops being a leap of faith and becomes an inventory purchase: you are buying calls at a price you decided in advance.
Why "test with $300" usually fails
HVAC clicks are competitive, and in most metro areas a single click on a high-intent search like ac repair near me can cost as much as a nice dinner. A tiny budget buys a handful of clicks spread across a month. That is not a test, it is a coin flip: the data is too thin to tell you anything, and most owners who try it conclude "ads don't work" when what actually happened is they never bought enough data to learn.
A real test needs enough spend to generate a readable number of leads within 30 to 60 days. As a working floor, we tell HVAC owners to be mentally prepared for at least $1,500 to $3,000 per month in ad spend in a typical suburban market, more in dense metros where clicks cost more. If that number is not workable right now, you are usually better off putting the money into your Google Business Profile and reviews first, then coming back to paid when the budget is real.
Local Services Ads first, Search second
For most HVAC companies the order of operations matters more than the total:
- Local Services Ads (LSAs). You pay per lead, not per click, and you show up at the very top with a Google Guaranteed badge. Reviews heavily influence how often you show. For most local trades this is the first dollar we deploy.
- Google Search campaigns. Classic pay-per-click on emergency and replacement searches. More control, more reach, and more ways to waste money if nobody is watching negative keywords, geo targeting, and call tracking.
- Everything else later. Display, YouTube, and Performance Max have their place, but not before the first two are profitable.
The three numbers to watch every week
Skip vanity metrics. Impressions and clicks do not pay for trucks. Watch:
- Cost per lead. Total spend divided by real inquiries (calls, forms, messages). Not clicks. Leads.
- Booked-job rate. What fraction of leads turned into scheduled work? If this is low, the problem is usually answering speed or the booking process, not the ads.
- Cost per booked job vs. job value. The only number that decides whether to scale up, hold, or cut.
If a campaign books jobs for less than they are worth, the budget question inverts: you stop asking "how much should I spend?" and start asking "how fast can I add capacity?"
When ads are the wrong answer
Honesty matters more than a sale, so: if your website loads slowly, has no clear phone number, or looks like it was built in 2009, fix that before buying traffic. Ads multiply what you already have. Send paid clicks to a weak site and you pay full price for leads that never call. The same goes for phones that ring out: the fastest way to double ad performance is often just answering every call.
Want the exact numbers for your market? Our free audit looks at what HVAC clicks actually cost where you operate, how your competitors are showing up, and what a realistic budget looks like for the jobs you want. No cost, no obligation. Request a free audit.